Chapman University economists project slow U.S. economic growth in 2026, with real GDP expected to rise 2 percent, up from 1.8 percent in 2025, according to the school’s annual forecast released Thursday.
President Emeritus James Doti, who presented the outlook, said tariffs on imported goods — described in the forecast as “the highest in nearly a century” — are weighing on businesses dependent on overseas materials and raising consumer prices. “There’s no question, the tariffs are having an impact,” Doti told the Orange County Register.
The forecast noted that record spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure and a $55 trillion increase in household wealth since 2020 have helped offset tariff effects, fueling consumer spending and job creation.
Economists said AI investment could serve as a growth engine by creating new business opportunities, even as trade barriers continue to challenge the broader economy.