Christian Democrats risk losing all seats in eastern state as SPD frames vote as head-to-head battle with far-right AfD
Germany goes to the polls on Sunday in state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, in a test widely seen as consequential for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his Christian Democratic Union, just weeks after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) scored a landmark result in Saxony-Anhalt.
In that vote on 6 September, the AfD secured 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, winning enough seats to come within just three of an outright majority in the state parliament — a result that intensified debate over the growing strength of Germany’s far right and the resilience of the country’s traditional parties.
The Mecklenburg-Vorpommern vote is seen as especially fraught for Merz’s CDU. The party is polling close to the 5% threshold required to enter parliament, with surveys pointing to a significant decline in support. Should it fail to clear that bar, it would mark the first time the Christian Democrats have failed to win a single seat in the state legislature.
CDU officials have partly attributed the party’s difficulties to the campaign strategy pursued by the Social Democrats (SPD) and the state’s state premier, Manuela Schwesig, who has made confrontation with the AfD the central theme of her re-election bid.
The SPD is running neck-and-neck with the AfD in state polling, with Schwesig casting the contest as a straight choice between two options under the campaign slogan “Die Frau gegen Blau” (“The woman versus blue”), a reference to the AfD’s party colour. CDU figures argue that this framing has squeezed the other parties and ultimately worked to the AfD’s advantage.
