Türkiye’s economic growth is projected to remain at 3 percent in 2025, unchanged from the September 2024 forecast, according to a report by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
The London-based institution’s Regional Economic Prospects report, released on Thursday, highlighted that tighter monetary and fiscal policies had contributed to a “significant reduction” in inflation. Net exports have risen, and the current account deficit has “declined steadily,” the EBRD said.
The bank forecasts a modest acceleration in growth to 3.5 percent in 2026. However, the report cautioned against a “premature loosening” of policy measures, citing persistent high inflation, geopolitical uncertainties, and the impact of the Turkish lira’s real appreciation on export competitiveness as key downside risks.
Türkiye’s “high short-term external financing needs” also leave its economic outlook vulnerable to shifts in global financing conditions, the EBRD warned.
In mid-January, the IMF marginally revised Türkiye’s 2024 growth forecast upwards by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6 percent, while maintaining its 2026 projection at 3.2 percent.